86th Academy Award Predictions

Ah, the Oscars. It’s this time of the year when I usually start my tirade against the most depressing show on Earth. The Academy Awards are always disappointing in numerous ways (among them: the consistent failure to recognize women and minorities, the transparent politics, and the predictable nature of the nominations), but I’m not going to let it get to me this year.

In the back of my mind, I always knew it was a bunch of silly pap for Hollywood to pat themselves on the back, but it meant something more to me in my burgeoning years as a movie lover. Being a cinephile and waiting for the nominations used to be an exhilarating experience. Now I watch a lot more movies, and I’ve realized that some award show naming a definitive Best Picture of the Year doesn’t mean a thing anymore. The Oscars have a new purpose now, whether anyone admits or not: they’re here to continue reinforcing suspicions that all of the problems facing the industry today are only growing worse.

I feel sufficiently jaded after watching all of these films. It’s common for the race to be populated by mediocrity, but it feels especially slight this year. There is Cuarón’s “Gravity,” an empty spectacle featuring laughable dialogue and a dubiously tacked-on character arc. “Her” is Spike Jonze’s failed attempt at profundity and “American Hustle” is David O. Russell’s failed attempt at a big-league prestige picture. “Philomena” and “Captain Phillips” are decent films likely included to fill slots and “Dallas Buyers Club” is slighter and much more ill-conceived.

The three worth watching are “Nebraska,” “12 Years a Slave,” and especially, Scorsese’s “The Wolf of Wall Street” — three movies that could make the cut in a far stronger lineup. Other than that, most of these movies are highly problematic fluff. Here are my predictions for Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress, and Best Supporting Actor/Actress:

Best Picture
“American Hustle”
“Her”
“Nebraska”
“Philomena”
“12 Years a Slave”
“The Wolf of Wall Street”
“Captain Phillips”
“Dallas Buyers Club”
“Gravity”

Who will win:
It pains to say this: David O. Russell’s vapid “American Hustle” will win Best Picture. It’s safe, overpraised, and forgettable — a sure steal! Movies like this are the problem. I saw this film a few days ago and am struggling, literally, to remember a single scene or performance. Meanwhile, films such as the Coen Brothers’ “Inside Llewyn Davis” and Harmony Korine’s “Spring Breakers” — two films people will be talking about for a long time — are brushed under the rug. There is, however, a slight chance that Steve McQueen’s “12 Years a Slave” could win, and that is a far superior alternative.

Who should win: Martin Scorsese’s “The Wolf of Wall Street” was clearly the best film of last year, in my opinion. Its pitch-black satire wasn’t expected to sit well with the Academy, but it’s disappointing so many people continue to misunderstand this important commentary on elite excess. Being the best film at the Oscars usually means a snub (see: “The Tree of Life” in 2011 and “A Serious Man” in 2009), but it stings especially hard this year.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale
“American Hustle”

Bruce Dern
“Nebraska”

Leonardo DiCaprio
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

Chiwetel Ejiofor
“12 Years a Slave”

Matthew McConaughey
“Dallas Buyers Club”

Who will win: Matthew McConaughey is pretty much settled for Best Actor. “Dallas Buyers Club” is a dreadful movie, the worst in the running, and it would be a real shame if it won anything. McConaughey was much better in last year’s “Magic Mike,” but his performance isn’t as terrible as the movie surrounding it. As great as it to see this incredible actor finally getting some nice, meaty roles, he’s capable of far more than this.

Who should win: I really didn’t dislike any of the leads in this category, but a perfect world would lend Leonardo DiCaprio some credit for the best role of his career.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Amy Adams
“American Hustle”

Cate Blanchett
“Blue Jasmine”

Sandra Bullock
“Gravity”

Judi Dench
“Philomena”

Meryl Streep
“August: Osage County”

Who will win: Cate Blanchett for Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine.” Given the controversy around the writer/director, it’s almost possible someone else could take this award. If the Academy hates one thing, it’s upsetting people. I am not on Allen’s side, nor did I care for his latest film. But Blanchett did give the best performances in this category, and it would be nice to see her recognized.

Who should win: Cate Blanchett. This category was disappointingly weak this year, though. The strong female performances of 2013 (Margot Robbie in “The Wolf of Wall Street,” Greta Gerwig in “Frances Ha,” and Amy Seimetz in “Upstream Color”) are mostly absent here. Go figure.

Best Actor in A Supporting Role

Barkhad Abdi
“Captain Phillips”

Bradley Cooper
“American Hustle”

Michael Fassbender
“12 Years a Slave”

Jonah Hill
“The Wolf of Wall Street”

Jared Leto
“Dallas Buyers Club”

Who will win: Jared Leto’s trans-turn in “Dallas Buyer’s Club” has been getting a lot of negative buzz, but it’s not enough to deter the Academy from dishing out an award to the guy. Although I personally found the script, direction, and general conception of the film to be far more offensive than Leto’s performance, it still doesn’t deserve this kind of recognition.

Who should win: Jonah Hill is becoming one of the most exciting young actors in Hollywood, and his natural comic sensibilities have never been more alive than in his turn as Donnie Azoff in “The Wolf of Wall Street.” I would not be too upset, however, if Barkhad Abdi won for his multifarious portrayal of a pirate in “Captain Phillips.”

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Sally Hawkins
“Blue Jasmine”

Jennifer Lawrence
“American Hustle”

Lupita Nyong’o
“12 Years a Slave”

Julia Roberts
“August: Osage County”

June Squibb
“Nebraska”

Who will win: In deciding this category, I’m gonna go ahead and be optimistic: Lupita Nyong’o will take home the award for her wrenching performance in “12 Years a Slave.” It is entirely possible that this award could fall into the undeserving hands of Jennifer Lawrence, but Nyong’o has been gaining rapid word-of-mouth as a front-runner in this category. Her win would be a wonderful thing indeed.

Who should win: Lupita Nyong’o for “12 Years a Slave.”